Development and validation of a prognostic model for the early identification of COVID-19 patients at risk of developing common long COVID symptoms.

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic demands reliable prognostic models for estimating the risk of long COVID. We developed and validated a prediction model to estimate the probability of known common long COVID symptoms at least 60 days after acute COVID-19. METHODS: The prognostic model was built based on data from a multicentre prospective Swiss cohort study. Included were adult patients diagnosed with COVID-19 between February and December 2020 and treated as outpatients, at ward or intensive/intermediate care unit. Perceived long-term health impairments, including reduced exercise tolerance/reduced resilience, shortness of breath and/or tiredness (REST), were assessed after a follow-up time between 60 and 425 days. The data set was split into a derivation and a geographical validation cohort. Predictors were selected out of twelve candidate predictors based on three methods, namely the augmented backward elimination (ABE) method, the adaptive best-subset selection (ABESS) method and model-based recursive partitioning (MBRP) approach. Model performance was assessed with the scaled Brier score, concordance c statistic and calibration plot. The final prognostic model was determined based on best model performance. RESULTS: In total, 2799 patients were included in the analysis, of which 1588 patients were in the derivation cohort and 1211 patients in the validation cohort. The REST prevalence was similar between the cohorts with 21.6% (n = 343) in the derivation cohort and 22.1% (n = 268) in the validation cohort. The same predictors were selected with the ABE and ABESS approach. The final prognostic model was based on the ABE and ABESS selected predictors. The corresponding scaled Brier score in the validation cohort was 18.74%, model discrimination was 0.78 (95% CI: 0.75 to 0.81), calibration slope was 0.92 (95% CI: 0.78 to 1.06) and calibration intercept was -0.06 (95% CI: -0.22 to 0.09). CONCLUSION: The proposed model was validated to identify COVID-19-infected patients at high risk for REST symptoms. Before implementing the prognostic model in daily clinical practice, the conduct of an impact study is recommended.

Early and Rapid Identification of COVID-19 Patients with Neutralizing Type I Interferon Auto-antibodies.

PURPOSE: Six to 19% of critically ill COVID-19 patients display circulating auto-antibodies against type I interferons (IFN-AABs). Here, we establish a clinically applicable strategy for early identification of IFN-AAB-positive patients for potential subsequent clinical interventions. METHODS: We analyzed sera of 430 COVID-19 patients from four hospitals for presence of IFN-AABs by ELISA. Binding specificity and neutralizing activity were evaluated via competition assay and virus-infection-based neutralization assay. We defined clinical parameters associated with IFN-AAB positivity. In a subgroup of critically ill patients, we analyzed effects of therapeutic plasma exchange (TPE) on the levels of IFN-AABs, SARS-CoV-2 antibodies and clinical outcome. RESULTS: The prevalence of neutralizing AABs to IFN-α and IFN-ω in COVID-19 patients from all cohorts was 4.2% (18/430), while being undetectable in an uninfected control cohort. Neutralizing IFN-AABs were detectable exclusively in critically affected (max. WHO score 6-8), predominantly male (83%) patients (7.6%, 18/237 for IFN-α-AABs and 4.6%, 11/237 for IFN-ω-AABs in 237 patients with critical COVID-19). IFN-AABs were present early post-symptom onset and at the peak of disease. Fever and oxygen requirement at hospital admission co-presented with neutralizing IFN-AAB positivity. IFN-AABs were associated with lower probability of survival (7.7% versus 80.9% in patients without IFN-AABs). TPE reduced levels of IFN-AABs in three of five patients and may increase survival of IFN-AAB-positive patients compared to those not undergoing TPE. CONCLUSION: IFN-AABs may serve as early biomarker for the development of severe COVID-19. We propose to implement routine screening of hospitalized COVID-19 patients for rapid identification of patients with IFN-AABs who most likely benefit from specific therapies.

Neuro-axonal injury in COVID-19: the role of systemic inflammation and SARS-CoV-2 specific immune response.

Background: In coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) patients, there is increasing evidence of neuronal injury by the means of elevated serum neurofilament light chain (sNfL) levels. However, the role of systemic inflammation and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)-specific immune response with regard to neuronal injury has not yet been investigated. Methods: In a prospective cohort study, we recruited patients with mild-moderate (n = 39) and severe (n = 14) COVID-19 and measured sNfL levels, cytokine concentrations, SARS-CoV-2-specific antibodies including neutralizing antibody titers, and cell-mediated immune responses at enrollment and at 28(±7) days. We explored the association of neuro-axonal injury as by the means of sNfL measurements with disease severity, cytokine levels, and virus-specific immune responses. Results: sNfL levels, as an indicator for neuronal injury, were higher at enrollment and increased during follow-up in severely ill patients, whereas during mild-moderate COVID-19, sNfL levels remained unchanged. Severe COVID-19 was associated with increased concentrations of cytokines assessed [interleukin (IL)-6, IL-8, interleukin-1 beta (IL-1ß), and tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α)], higher anti-spike IgG and anti-nucleocapsid IgG concentrations, and increased neutralizing antibody titers compared with mild-moderate disease. Patients with more severe disease had higher counts of defined SARS-CoV-2-specific T cells. Increases in sNfL concentrations from baseline to day 28(±7) positively correlated with anti-spike protein IgG antibody levels and with titers of neutralizing antibodies. Conclusion: Severe COVID-19 is associated with increased serum concentration of cytokines and subsequent neuronal injury as reflected by increased levels of sNfL. Patients with more severe disease developed higher neutralizing antibody titers and higher counts of SARS-CoV-2-specific T cells during the course of COVID-19 disease. Mounting a pronounced virus-specific humoral and cell-mediated immune response upon SARS-CoV-2 infection did not protect from neuro-axonal damage as by the means of sNfL levels.

Neuro-axonal injury in COVID-19: the role of systemic inflammation and SARS-CoV-2 specific immune response

Background: In coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) patients, there is increasing evidence of neuronal injury by the means of elevated serum neurofilament light chain (sNfL) levels. However, the role of systemic inflammation and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)–specific immune response with regard to neuronal injury has not yet been investigated. Methods: In a prospective cohort study, we recruited patients with mild–moderate (n = 39) and severe (n = 14) COVID-19 and measured sNfL levels, cytokine concentrations, SARS-CoV-2-specific antibodies including neutralizing antibody titers, and cell-mediated immune responses at enrollment and at 28(±7) days. We explored the association of neuro-axonal injury as by the means of sNfL measurements with disease severity, cytokine levels, and virus-specific immune responses. Results: sNfL levels, as an indicator for neuronal injury, were higher at enrollment and increased during follow-up in severely ill patients, whereas during mild–moderate COVID-19, sNfL levels remained unchanged. Severe COVID-19 was associated with increased concentrations of cytokines assessed [interleukin (IL)-6, IL-8, interleukin-1 beta (IL-1β), and tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α)], higher anti-spike IgG and anti-nucleocapsid IgG concentrations, and increased neutralizing antibody titers compared with mild–moderate disease. Patients with more severe disease had higher counts of defined SARS-CoV-2-specific T cells. Increases in sNfL concentrations from baseline to day 28(±7) positively correlated with anti-spike protein IgG antibody levels and with titers of neutralizing antibodies. Conclusion: Severe COVID-19 is associated with increased serum concentration of cytokines and subsequent neuronal injury as reflected by increased levels of sNfL. Patients with more severe disease developed higher neutralizing antibody titers and higher counts of SARS-CoV-2-specific T cells during the course of COVID-19 disease. Mounting a pronounced virus-specific humoral and cell-mediated immune response upon SARS-CoV-2 infection did not protect from neuro-axonal damage as by the means of sNfL levels.

LRR-protein RNH1 dampens the inflammasome activation and is associated with COVID-19 severity.

Inflammasomes are cytosolic innate immune sensors of pathogen infection and cellular damage that induce caspase-1-mediated inflammation upon activation. Although inflammation is protective, uncontrolled excessive inflammation can cause inflammatory diseases and can be detrimental, such as in coronavirus disease (COVID-19). However, the underlying mechanisms that control inflammasome activation are incompletely understood. Here we report that the leucine-rich repeat (LRR) protein ribonuclease inhibitor (RNH1), which shares homology with LRRs of NLRP (nucleotide-binding oligomerization domain, leucine-rich repeat, and pyrin domain containing) proteins, attenuates inflammasome activation. Deletion of RNH1 in macrophages increases interleukin (IL)-1ß production and caspase-1 activation in response to inflammasome stimulation. Mechanistically, RNH1 decreases pro-IL-1ß expression and induces proteasome-mediated caspase-1 degradation. Corroborating this, mouse models of monosodium urate (MSU)-induced peritonitis and lipopolysaccharide (LPS)-induced endotoxemia, which are dependent on caspase-1, respectively, show increased neutrophil infiltration and lethality in Rnh1 -/- mice compared with wild-type mice. Furthermore, RNH1 protein levels were negatively related with disease severity and inflammation in hospitalized COVID-19 patients. We propose that RNH1 is a new inflammasome regulator with relevance to COVID-19 severity.

The COVID-19 puzzle: deciphering pathophysiology and phenotypes of a new disease entity.

The zoonotic SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID-19 continues to spread worldwide, with devastating consequences. While the medical community has gained insight into the epidemiology of COVID-19, important questions remain about the clinical complexities and underlying mechanisms of disease phenotypes. Severe COVID-19 most commonly involves respiratory manifestations, although other systems are also affected, and acute disease is often followed by protracted complications. Such complex manifestations suggest that SARS-CoV-2 dysregulates the host response, triggering wide-ranging immuno-inflammatory, thrombotic, and parenchymal derangements. We review the intricacies of COVID-19 pathophysiology, its various phenotypes, and the anti-SARS-CoV-2 host response at the humoral and cellular levels. Some similarities exist between COVID-19 and respiratory failure of other origins, but evidence for many distinctive mechanistic features indicates that COVID-19 constitutes a new disease entity, with emerging data suggesting involvement of an endotheliopathy-centred pathophysiology. Further research, combining basic and clinical studies, is needed to advance understanding of pathophysiological mechanisms and to characterise immuno-inflammatory derangements across the range of phenotypes to enable optimum care for patients with COVID-19.

Bridging animal and clinical research during SARS-CoV-2 pandemic: A new-old challenge.

Many milestones in medical history rest on animal modeling of human diseases. The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has evoked a tremendous investigative effort primarily centered on clinical studies. However, several animal SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 models have been developed and pre-clinical findings aimed at supporting clinical evidence rapidly emerge. In this review, we characterize the existing animal models exposing their relevance and limitations as well as outline their utility in COVID-19 drug and vaccine development. Concurrently, we summarize the status of clinical trial research and discuss the novel tactics utilized in the largest multi-center trials aiming to accelerate generation of reliable results that may subsequently shape COVID-19 clinical treatment practices. We also highlight areas of improvement for animal studies in order to elevate their translational utility. In pandemics, to optimize the use of strained resources in a short time-frame, optimizing and strengthening the synergy between the preclinical and clinical domains is pivotal.

COVID-19-associated acute respiratory distress syndrome (CARDS): Current knowledge on pathophysiology and ICU treatment - A narrative review.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) induces coronavirus-19 disease (COVID-19) and is a major health concern. Following two SARS-CoV-2 pandemic "waves," intensive care unit (ICU) specialists are treating a large number of COVID19-associated acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) patients. From a pathophysiological perspective, prominent mechanisms of COVID19-associated ARDS (CARDS) include severe pulmonary infiltration/edema and inflammation leading to impaired alveolar homeostasis, alteration of pulmonary physiology resulting in pulmonary fibrosis, endothelial inflammation (endotheliitis), vascular thrombosis, and immune cell activation. Although the syndrome ARDS serves as an umbrella term, distinct, i.e., CARDS-specific pathomechanisms and comorbidities can be noted (e.g., virus-induced endotheliitis associated with thromboembolism) and some aspects of CARDS can be considered ARDS "atypical." Importantly, specific evidence-based medical interventions for CARDS (with the potential exception of corticosteroid use) are currently unavailable, limiting treatment efforts to mostly supportive ICU care. In this article, we will discuss the underlying pulmonary pathophysiology and the clinical management of CARDS. In addition, we will outline current and potential future treatment approaches.

Reduced Monocytic Human Leukocyte Antigen-DR Expression Indicates Immunosuppression in Critically Ill COVID-19 Patients.

BACKGROUND: The cellular immune system is of pivotal importance with regard to the response to severe infections. Monocytes/macrophages are considered key immune cells in infections and downregulation of the surface expression of monocytic human leukocyte antigen-DR (mHLA-DR) within the major histocompatibility complex class II reflects a state of immunosuppression, also referred to as injury-associated immunosuppression. As the role of immunosuppression in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is currently unclear, we seek to explore the level of mHLA-DR expression in COVID-19 patients. METHODS: In a preliminary prospective monocentric observational study, 16 COVID-19-positive patients (75% male, median age: 68 [interquartile range 59-75]) requiring hospitalization were included. The median Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation-II (APACHE-II) score in 9 intensive care unit (ICU) patients with acute respiratory failure was 30 (interquartile range 25-32). Standardized quantitative assessment of HLA-DR on monocytes (cluster of differentiation 14+ cells) was performed using calibrated flow cytometry at baseline (ICU/hospital admission) and at days 3 and 5 after ICU admission. Baseline data were compared to hospitalized noncritically ill COVID-19 patients. RESULTS: While normal mHLA-DR expression was observed in all hospitalized noncritically ill patients (n = 7), 89% (8 of 9) critically ill patients with COVID-19-induced acute respiratory failure showed signs of downregulation of mHLA-DR at ICU admission. mHLA-DR expression at admission was significantly lower in critically ill patients (median, [quartiles]: 9280 antibodies/cell [6114, 16,567]) as compared to the noncritically ill patients (30,900 antibodies/cell [26,777, 52,251]), with a median difference of 21,508 antibodies/cell (95% confidence interval [CI], 14,118-42,971), P = .002. Reduced mHLA-DR expression was observed to persist until day 5 after ICU admission. CONCLUSIONS: When compared to noncritically ill hospitalized COVID-19 patients, ICU patients with severe COVID-19 disease showed reduced mHLA-DR expression on circulating CD14+ monocytes at ICU admission, indicating a dysfunctional immune response. This immunosuppressive (monocytic) phenotype remained unchanged over the ensuing days after ICU admission. Strategies aiming for immunomodulation in this population of critically ill patients should be guided by an immune-monitoring program in an effort to determine who might benefit best from a given immunological intervention.